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Unconditional Probability

What is 'Unconditional Probability'

The probability that an event will occur, not contingent on any prior or related results. An unconditional probability is the independent chance that a single outcome results from a sample of possible outcomes. To find the unconditional probability of an event, sum the outcomes of the event and divide by the total number of possible outcomes.

Explaining 'Unconditional Probability'


Further Reading


Forecasting economic and financial time-series with non-linear models
www.sciencedirect.com [PDF]
… The predominance of non-linear models in economics and finance is not inconsistent with the use of linear … of states s t =1, 2, (for a two-regime model), defined by the transition probabilities:(3) p ij … Pr(s t =2)=p 12 /(p 12 +p 21 ) is the unconditional probability of regime 2 …

Economic value, competition and financial distress in the European banking systemEconomic value, competition and financial distress in the European banking system
www.sciencedirect.com [PDF]
… The predominance of non-linear models in economics and finance is not inconsistent with the use of linear … of states s t =1, 2, (for a two-regime model), defined by the transition probabilities:(3) p ij … Pr(s t =2)=p 12 /(p 12 +p 21 ) is the unconditional probability of regime 2 …

The conditional probability of mortgage defaultThe conditional probability of mortgage default
onlinelibrary.wiley.com [PDF]
… The predominance of non-linear models in economics and finance is not inconsistent with the use of linear … of states s t =1, 2, (for a two-regime model), defined by the transition probabilities:(3) p ij … Pr(s t =2)=p 12 /(p 12 +p 21 ) is the unconditional probability of regime 2 …

Financial crises and macro-prudential policiesFinancial crises and macro-prudential policies
www.sciencedirect.com [PDF]
… The predominance of non-linear models in economics and finance is not inconsistent with the use of linear … of states s t =1, 2, (for a two-regime model), defined by the transition probabilities:(3) p ij … Pr(s t =2)=p 12 /(p 12 +p 21 ) is the unconditional probability of regime 2 …

Modeling of financial data: comparison of the truncated Lévy flight and the ARCH (1) and GARCH (1, 1) processesModeling of financial data: comparison of the truncated Lévy flight and the ARCH (1) and GARCH (1, 1) processes
www.sciencedirect.com [PDF]
… The predominance of non-linear models in economics and finance is not inconsistent with the use of linear … of states s t =1, 2, (for a two-regime model), defined by the transition probabilities:(3) p ij … Pr(s t =2)=p 12 /(p 12 +p 21 ) is the unconditional probability of regime 2 …

Bank recapitalization and economic recovery after financial crisesBank recapitalization and economic recovery after financial crises
www.sciencedirect.com [PDF]
… The predominance of non-linear models in economics and finance is not inconsistent with the use of linear … of states s t =1, 2, (for a two-regime model), defined by the transition probabilities:(3) p ij … Pr(s t =2)=p 12 /(p 12 +p 21 ) is the unconditional probability of regime 2 …

Financial asset returns, direction-of-change forecasting, and volatility dynamicsFinancial asset returns, direction-of-change forecasting, and volatility dynamics
pubsonline.informs.org [PDF]
… The predominance of non-linear models in economics and finance is not inconsistent with the use of linear … of states s t =1, 2, (for a two-regime model), defined by the transition probabilities:(3) p ij … Pr(s t =2)=p 12 /(p 12 +p 21 ) is the unconditional probability of regime 2 …

Unconditional quantile treatment effects under endogeneityUnconditional quantile treatment effects under endogeneity
www.tandfonline.com [PDF]
… The predominance of non-linear models in economics and finance is not inconsistent with the use of linear … of states s t =1, 2, (for a two-regime model), defined by the transition probabilities:(3) p ij … Pr(s t =2)=p 12 /(p 12 +p 21 ) is the unconditional probability of regime 2 …



Q&A About Unconditional Probability


What is unconditional probability?

The probability that an event will occur, not contingent on any prior or related results.

What are some examples of conditional and joint probabilities?

Some examples include flipping a coin, rolling a die, drawing from a deck of cards, etc.

How do you find joint probabilities?

Joint probabilities are found by multiplying two events together and then dividing it with all possible outcomes.

How does one find conditional probability?

Conditional probabilities are found by dividing a single outcome with all possible outcomes.

What is the formula for finding unconditional probability?

The formula for finding unconditional probability is to sum the outcomes of the event and divide by the total number of possible outcomes.

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