Uncovered interest arbitrage is an arbitrage trading strategy whereby an investor capitalizes on the interest rate differential between two countries. Unlike covered interest arbitrage, uncovered interest arbitrage involves no hedging of foreign exchange risk with the use of forward contracts or any other contract. The strategy involves risk, as an investor exposed to exchange rate fluctuations is speculating that exchange rates will remain favorable enough for arbitrage to be profitable. The opportunity to earn profits arises from the reality that the uncovered interest rate parity condition does not constantly hold—that is, the interest rate on investments in one country’s currency does not always equal the interest rate on foreign-currency investments plus the rate of appreciation that is expected for the foreign currency relative to the domestic currency.
Uncovered Interest Arbitrage
What is ‘Uncovered Interest Arbitrage’
A form of arbitrage that involves switching from a domestic currency that carries a lower interest rate to a foreign currency that offers a higher rate of interest on deposits. There is a foreign exchange risk implicit in this transaction since the investor or speculator will need to convert the foreign currency deposit proceeds back into the domestic currency some time in the future. The term “uncovered” in this arbitrage refers to the fact that this foreign exchange risk is not covered through a forward or futures contract.
Explaining ‘Uncovered Interest Arbitrage’
Total returns from uncovered interest arbitrage depend considerably on currency fluctuations, since adverse currency movements can wipe out all the gains and in fact even lead to negative returns. If the interest rate differential obtained by investing in a foreign currency is 3%, and the foreign currency appreciates against the domestic currency by 2% during the holding period, the total return from this arbitrage activity is 5%. On the other hand, if the foreign currency depreciates by 4% during the holding period, the total return is -1%.
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