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Lower July Iraq and Saudi exports to boost crude timespreads – Energy Aspects

* Iraq is stepping up compliance with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) deal, with July Basrah crude exports to fall below 2.5 million barrels per day (mbpd), possibly even as low as 2.2 mbpd, consultancy Energy Aspects said in a note. * “Within Asia, South Korean refiners have been hardest hit by the cuts to July allocations. Even China and India, the two largest lifters of Iraqi crude at around 1 mbpd each, appear to have been cut by 25–75%,” it said. * This comes after Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil exporter, reduced the volume of July-loading crude that it will supply to at least five buyers in Asia, sources said on Monday. * Energy Aspects said these shortfalls are likely to force Asian buyers to source crude from the Atlantic Basin, which should support U.S. and European crudes to move east. * “However, with Brent at $40, weakened Chinese domestic refining margins could continue to push teapots to resell some more crude cargoes,” it added. * The consultancy said all the other supply-led bullish factors will continue to support timespreads right now, particularly for sour crudes, which will show up most clearly in the Dubai contract and tightening of sweet-sour spreads. * Energy Aspects said refiners can buy spot barrels to substitute the cutbacks in OPEC+ term barrels, which has a disproportionately bullish impact on benchmark prices. * The impact of OPEC’s compliance on flat price will depend on a number of factors including the continued recovery in global economic activity, the value of the dollar and the potential for a second wave of COVID-19 in the autumn, it added. * Earlier this month, OPEC, Russia and allies agreed to extend record oil production cuts until the end of July. (Reporting by Sumita Layek in Bengaluru; editing by Jonathan Oatis) Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.0 : 0narrow-browser-and-phonemedium-browser-and-portrait-tabletlandscape-tabletmedium-wide-browserwide-browser-and-largermedium-browser-and-landscape-tabletmedium-wide-browser-and-largerabove-phoneportrait-tablet-and-aboveabove-portrait-tabletlandscape-tablet-and-abovelandscape-tablet-and-medium-wide-browserportrait-tablet-and-belowlandscape-tablet-and-belowAppsNewslettersAdvertise with UsAdvertising GuidelinesCookiesTerms of UsePrivacyAll quotes delayed a minimum of 15 minutes. See here for a complete list of exchanges and delays. © 2020 Reuters. 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low as 2.2 mbpd, consultancy EnergynAspects said in a note.u003c/pu003enu003cpu003e* "Within Asia, South Korean refiners have been hardest hitnby thencuts to July allocations. Even China and India, the two largestnlifters of Iraqi crude at around 1 mbpd each, appear to havenbeen cut by 25–75%," it said.u003c/pu003enu003cpu003e* This comes after Saudi Aramco, the worldu0027snlargest oilnexporter, reduced the volume of July-loading crude that it willnsupply to at least five buyers in Asia, sources said on Monday.u003c/pu003enu003cpu003e* Energy Aspects said these shortfalls are likely to forcenAsiannbuyers to source crude from the Atlantic Basin, which shouldnsupport U.S. and European crudes to move east.u003c/pu003enu003cpu003e* "However, with Brent at $40, weakened Chinese domesticnrefiningnmargins could continue to push teapots to resell some more crudencargoes," it added.u003c/pu003enu003cpu003e* The consultancy said all the other supply-led bullishnfactorsnwill continue to support timespreads right now, particularly fornsour crudes, which will show up most clearly in the Dubaincontract and tightening of sweet-sour spreads.u003c/pu003enu003cpu003e* Energy Aspects said refiners can buy spot barrels tonsubstitutenthe cutbacks in OPEC+ term barrels, which has andisproportionately bullish impact on benchmark prices.u003c/pu003enu003cpu003e* The impact of OPECu0027s compliance on flat price will dependnon annumber of factors including the continued recovery in globalneconomic activity, the value of the dollar and the potential forna second wave of COVID-19 in the autumn, it added.u003c/pu003enu003cpu003e* Earlier this month, OPEC, Russia and allies agreed tonextendnrecord oil production cuts until the end of July.n(Reporting by Sumita Layek in Bengaluru; editing by JonathannOatis)u003c/pu003e","attribution":{"type":"default"},"channel_stories":[{"id":"USL1N2DT2VA","updated":1592351832,"headline":"GLOBAL MARKETS-Asian stocks set to rise as drug trials, data push Wall Street higher","path":"/article/global-markets/global-markets-asian-stocks-set-to-rise-as-drug-trials-data-push-wall-street-higher-idUSL1N2DT2VA"},{"id":"USU5N2BQ00P","updated":1592348703,"headline":"Fed has lots of u0027dry powder,u0027 Kaplan tells Bloomberg Radio","path":"/article/usa-fed-kaplan/fed-has-lots-of-dry-powder-kaplan-tells-bloomberg-radio-idUSU5N2BQ00P"},{"id":"USL4N2DT4IH","updated":1592348672,"headline":"UPDATE 1-Infigen picks $569 mln offer from Spainu0027s Iberdrola over Ayala bid","path":"/article/infigen-ma-iberdrola/update-1-infigen-picks-569-mln-offer-from-spains-iberdrola-over-ayala-bid-idUSL4N2DT4IH"}],"description":"u003c/pu003enu003cpu003e* Iraq is stepping up compliance with the Organization ofnthenPetroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) deal, with JulynBasrah crude exports to fall below 2.5 million barrels per dayn(mbpd), possibly even as low a","dart_zone":"us.reuters/tentpoles/energy/article","link_to_parent":false,"show_others_in_parent":false,"canvas_enable":false},"translations":{"shared":{"disclaimer":"Disclaimer","sponsored_content":"Sponsored","related_coverage":"Related Coverage","sponsored_topics":"Sponsored","sponsored_stories":"Sponsored","more_from":"More From Reuters","updated":"Updated []","slideshow":"Slideshow","featured":"Featured","edition":"Edition","trending":"Trending","advertisement":"Advertisement","visit_now":"Visit Now","show_full_article":"Show Full Article","breaking_news":"Breaking News","live_update":"Live Update","the_wire":"The Wire","image_count":"[] Images","sections":"Sections","get_the_app_banner_top":"Better questions. 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