BROWSE

FACTBOX-Mexican central bank report sees deeper slump, faster recovery

Mexico’s economy could contract by almost 13% this year, the central bank warned on Wednesday, after gross domestic product data showed the coronavirus pandemic lockdown threw the country into the sharpest slump since the Great Depression. Here are some key forecasts and analysis from the Banco de Mexico’s quarterly economic report: JOBS Banxico improved its outlook for employment, saying Mexico could lose between 750,000 and 1.1 million tax-paying jobs in 2020, a decrease from the prior forecast of between 800,000 and 1.4 million. Latin America’s second-largest economy could create between 100,000 and 450,000 jobs next year. GROWTH The bank provided three possible scenarios for the economy’s performance in 2020 and 2021, saying a single growth forecast “may suggest a higher level of precision than the current environment or the available information allows.” In a V-shaped economic scenario, Mexico’s economy will contract by 8.8% this year and expand 5.6% in 2021. In a deep V-shaped scenario, the economy will shrink 11.3% in 2020 and grow 2.8% in 2021. In a deep U-shaped scenario, the economy will contract 12.8% in 2020 and grow 1.3% in 2021. In its last report, the bank’s worst case scenario had warned of another year of contraction in 2021. INFLATION Banxico forecast higher inflation, after also increasing its oulook for consumer prices in the last two quarterly reports. It now puts annual headline inflation at 3.7% and core inflation at 3.8% in the fourth quarter of 2020. For the fourth quarter 2021, headline inflation is seen at 2.9% and core inflation at 2.8%. TRADE AND PAYMENTS BALANCE Banxico said for 2020 there could be a positive trade balance of between $3.3 billion and $8.8 billion, equivalent to 0.3% and 0.9% of GDP. It also forecast a current account balance of between -$6.0 billion and $5.0 billion. (Reporting by Anthony Esposito; Editing by Aurora Ellis) Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.0 : 0narrow-browser-and-phonemedium-browser-and-portrait-tabletlandscape-tabletmedium-wide-browserwide-browser-and-largermedium-browser-and-landscape-tabletmedium-wide-browser-and-largerabove-phoneportrait-tablet-and-aboveabove-portrait-tabletlandscape-tablet-and-abovelandscape-tablet-and-medium-wide-browserportrait-tablet-and-belowlandscape-tablet-and-belowAppsNewslettersAdvertise with UsAdvertising GuidelinesCookiesTerms of UsePrivacyDo Not Sell My Personal InformationAll quotes delayed a minimum of 15 minutes. See here for a complete list of exchanges and delays. © 2020 Reuters. All Rights Reserved. window.RCOM_Data = {"header_q8ksbhf38i":{"template":"header","evergreens":[{"url":"https://www.reuters.com/news/world","name":"World","sponsored":false},{"url":"https://www.reuters.com/finance","name":"Business","sponsored":false},{"url":"https://www.reuters.com/finance/markets","name":"Markets","sponsored":false},{"url":"https://www.reuters.com/politics","name":"Politics","sponsored":false},{"url":"https://www.reuters.tv/","name":"TV","sponsored":false}],"topics":[{"url":"https://www.reuters.com/brexit","name":"Brexit","sponsored":false},{"url":"https://www.reuters.com/subjects/sustainable-business","name":"Sustainability","sponsored":false},{"url":"https://www.reuters.com/subjects/myanmar-reporters","name":"Imprisoned In Myanmar","sponsored":false},{"url":"https://www.reuters.com/subjects/charged","name":"Future of Cars","sponsored":false},{"url":"https://www.reuters.com/places/venezuela","name":"Venezuela","sponsored":false},{"url":"https://www.reuters.com/the-world-at-work","name":"World At Work","sponsored":false},{"url":"https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews","name":"Breakingviews","sponsored":false},{"url":"","name":"","sponsored":false},{"url":"","name":"","sponsored":false},{"url":"","name":"","sponsored":false},{"url":"","name":"","sponsored":false},{"url":"","name":"","sponsored":false}],"featured_stories":[{"displayName":"HURRICANE LAURA","url":"//www.reuters.com/article/us-storm-laura/hurricane-laura-to-cause-unsurvivable-storm-surge-on-u-s-gulf-coast-idUSKBN25M1Q1","image":"//static.reuters.com/resources/media/global/assets/images/20200826/20200826_1609015820200826183824.jpg","headline":"Hurricane Laura to cause u0027unsurvivable storm surgeu0027 on U.S. Gulf Coast as a Category 4"},{"displayName":"U.S.","url":"//www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-politics-womens-vote/u-s-marks-100-years-since-women-given-right-to-vote-idUSKBN25M2B4","image":"//static.reuters.com/resources/media/global/assets/images/20200826/20200826_9973479920200826185018.jpg","headline":"U.S. marks 100 years since women given right to vote"},{"displayName":"Change Agents","url":"//www.reuters.com/video/watch/change-agents-idRCV008NCL","image":"//static.reuters.com/resources/media/global/assets/images/20200826/20200826_4471520920200826130947.jpg","headline":"Talking diversity strategies with Pitney Bowes HR chief"},{"url":"/article/us-usa-election-convention-pence/pence-to-make-economic-pitch-at-rnc-as-trump-wades-into-wisconsin-protests-idUSKBN25M14R","image":"//s3.reutersmedia.net/resources/r/?mu003d02u0026du003d20200826u0026tu003d2u0026iu003d1531091259u0026ru003dLYNXMPEG7P0Q6","headline":"Pence to make economic pitch at RNC as Trump wades into protests"}],"render_key":"header_q8ksbhf38i","menu":[{"url":"/home","name":"Home"},{"url":"/finance","name":"Business","children":[{"url":"/finance","name":"Business Home"},{"url":"/legal","name":"Legal"},{"url":"/finance/deals","name":"Deals"},{"url":"/subjects/aerospace-and-defense","name":"Aerospace u0026 Defense"},{"url":"/subjects/banks","name":"Finance"},{"url":"/subjects/autos","name":"Autos"},{"url":"/finance/summits","name":"Reuters Summits"},{"url":"/subjects/sustainable-business","name":"Sustainable Business"},{"url":"/the-world-at-work","name":"The World at Work"}]},{"url":"/finance/markets","name":"Markets","children":[{"url":"/finance/markets","name":"Markets Home"},{"url":"/finance/markets/us","name":"U.S. Markets"},{"url":"/finance/markets/europe","name":"European Markets"},{"url":"/finance/markets/asia","name":"Asian Markets"},{"url":"/finance/global-market-data","name":"Global Market Data"},{"url":"/markets/stocks","name":"Stocks"},{"url":"/markets/bonds","name":"Bonds"},{"url":"/markets/currencies","name":"Currencies"},{"url":"/markets/commodities","name":"Commodities"},{"url":"/finance/funds","name":"Funds"},{"url":"/finance/EarningsUS","name":"Earnings"},{"url":"/finance/markets/dividends","name":"Dividends"},{"url":"/finance/exchange-traded-funds","name":"Exchange-Traded Funds"},{"url":"/subjects/us-lipper-awards","name":"Lipper Awards"},{"url":"https://stockscreener.us.reuters.com/Stock/US/Index?quickscreenu003dgaarp","name":"Stock Screener"},{"url":"https://funds.us.reuters.com/US/screener/screener.asp","name":"Fund Screener"}]},{"url":"/news/world","name":"World","children":[{"url":"/news/world","name":"World Home"},{"url":"/news/us","name":"U.S."},{"url":"/subjects/specialReports","name":"Special Reports"},{"url":"//www.reuters.com/investigates/","name":"Reuters Investigates"},{"url":"/subjects/euro-zone","name":"Euro Zone"},{"url":"/subjects/middle-east","name":"Middle East"},{"url":"/places/china","name":"China"},{"url":"/places/japan","name":"Japan"},{"url":"/places/mexico","name":"Mexico"},{"url":"/places/brazil","name":"Brazil"},{"url":"/places/africa","name":"Africa"},{"url":"/places/russia","name":"Russia"},{"url":"/places/india","name":"India"}]},{"url":"/politics","name":"Politics","children":[{"url":"/politics","name":"Politics Home"},{"url":"/politics/us-election2020","name":"Election 2020"},{"url":"/subjects/supreme-court","name":"Supreme Court"},{"url":"https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-POLLING-TRUMP/0100422Q4HZ/index.html","name":"Polling on the President"}]},{"url":"/news/technology","name":"Tech","children":[{"url":"/news/technology","name":"Technology Home"},{"url":"/news/science","name":"Science"},{"url":"/news/media","name":"Media"},{"url":"/energy-environment","name":"Energy and Environment"}]},{"url":"/breakingviews","name":"Breakingviews","children":[{"url":"/breakingviews","name":"Breakingviews Home"},{"url":"/video/breakingviews","name":"Breakingviews Video"}]},{"url":"/finance/wealth","name":"Wealth","children":[{"url":"/finance/wealth","name":"Wealth Home"},{"url":"/finance/personal-finance/retirement","name":"Retirement"}]},{"url":"/news/lifestyle","name":"Life","children":[{"url":"/news/health","name":"Health"},{"url":"/news/sports/soccer","name":"Soccer"},{"url":"/news/sports","name":"Sports"},{"url":"/news/entertainment/arts","name":"Arts"},{"url":"/news/entertainment","name":"Entertainment"},{"url":"/news/oddlyEnough","name":"Oddly Enough"}]},{"url":"/news/pictures","name":"Pictures","children":[{"url":"/news/pictures","name":"Pictures Home"},{"url":"http://widerimage.reuters.com","name":"The Wider Image"},{"url":"http://widerimage.reuters.com/photographer","name":"Photographers"}]},{"url":"/video","name":"TV"}],"config":{"edition":"BETAUS","lang":"en","ad_slots":{"mobile_first_canvas_hb":"no","inline_flex_mobile_sizes":[[2.0,2.0],[1.0,1.0],[1100.0,375.0],[300.0,250.0],"fluid"],"mobile_canvas_sizes":[[1100.0,200.0],[1100.0,300.0],[300.0,250.0],[1.0,1.0]],"mobile_mpu2_type":"bizdevmobwebfooter_1","feed_ad_sizes":[[1100.0,375.0],[300.0,212.0],[300.0,250.0],[1.0,1.0],"fluid"],"mobile_canvas_hb":"no","mobile_mpu_type":"mpu","rr_mpu2_type":"bizdev_article_rr2","rr_big2_type":"bizdev_article_rr3","mobile_canvas_type":"leaderboard","rr_big2_sizes":[[300.0,440.0]],"bottom_article_slot1_sizes":[[1100.0,420.0],"fluid"],"rr_big_sizes":[[300.0,462.0],[300.0,372.0],[1.0,1.0]],"mobile_big_sizes":[[300.0,472.0],[1.0,1.0]],"rr_mpu_hb":"yes","bottom_article_slot1_type":"connatix","mobile_first_canvas_type":"leaderboard","inline_flex_sizes":[[2.0,2.0],[1.0,1.0],[1100.0,375.0],"fluid"],"inline_native_type":"native","mobile_big_type":"bizdevmobwebfooter","first_canvas_sizes":[[728.0,90.0],[970.0,250.0],[970.0,90.0],[1100.0,100.0],[1.0,1.0]],"inline_canvas_sizes":[[2.0,2.0],[1.0,1.0],[1100.0,375.0],"fluid"],"inline_native_sizes":[[2.0,2.0],[1.0,1.0],[1100.0,375.0],[3020.0,375.0],"fluid"],"canvas_hb":"yes","mobile_first_canvas_sizes":[[1100.0,200.0],[1100.0,100.0],[1.0,1.0]],"canvas_type":"leaderboard","rr_mpu_type":"mpu","bottom_article_slot2_type":"bizdev_article_center","feed_ad_type":"landing","leaderboard_low_type":"leaderboardlow","mobile_mpu2_sizes":[[300.0,250.0],[1.0,1.0]],"bottom_article_slot1_mobile_sizes":[[300.0,450.0],"fluid"],"mobile_feed_ad_sizes":[[1100.0,375.0],[300.0,212.0],[300.0,250.0],[1.0,1.0],"fluid"],"rr_mpu_sizes":[[300.0,250.0],[1.0,1.0]],"bottom_article_slot2_sizes":[[300.0,300.0],[1100.0,420.0],[1.0,1.0],"fluid"],"first_canvas_type":"leaderboard","leaderboard_low_sizes":[[728.0,90.0],[970.0,250.0],[1100.0,100.0],[1100.0,200.0],[1100.0,300.0],[1.0,1.0]],"inline_native_mobile_sizes":[[2.0,2.0],[1.0,1.0],[1100.0,375.0],[300.0,250.0],"fluid"],"first_canvas_hb":"yes","mobile_mpu_sizes":[[2.0,2.0],[1.0,1.0],[1100.0,375.0],[300.0,250.0],[3020.0,375.0],"fluid"],"canvas_sizes":[[728.0,90.0],[970.0,250.0],[970.0,90.0],[1100.0,100.0],[1100.0,200.0],[1100.0,300.0],[1.0,1.0],[2.0,2.0]],"rr_mpu2_sizes":[[300.0,280.0]],"rr_big_type":"bizdev_article_rr1"}}},"article_list_ri0axciogg":{"template":"article_list","fisco_kyodo_disclaimer":"","render_key":"article_list_ri0axciogg","quote_path":"/finance/stocks/overview","tracking_data":{"channel":"Article - Markets","content_type":"Article","content_type_channel":"Article - Markets","content_channel":"Markets - Global Markets","topic_channel":"Markets","topic_subchannel":"Global Markets","backend_channel":"marketsNews"},"dart_domain":"us.reuters","fisco_kyodo_key":"","sharetools":["twitter","facebook"],"video_url":"https://queso-cdn.prod.reuters.tv/new/index.html","trustBadge_excludedChannels":"false","first_article":{"id":"USL1N2FS1RQ","source":"Reuters","layout_type":"default","channel":{"text":"Market News","path":"/news/archive/marketsNews"},"headline":"FACTBOX-Mexican central bank report sees deeper slump, faster recovery","shareUrl":"https://reut.rs/34B6dvh","published":1598474940,"updated":0,"path":"/article/mexico-economy-cenbank/factbox-mexican-central-bank-report-sees-deeper-slump-faster-recovery-idUSL1N2FS1RQ","body":"u003cpu003eMEXICO CITY, Aug 26

Comments are closed.